In NN#8, Chris finally invites a guest to join the podcast rather than just sharing his own views. He cordially welcomes Dr. Emily Grubert to the show to discuss their respective complaints about deficiencies in energy and climate modeling, and how they might be cured. Sources   Emily Grubert’s personal website   Emily Grubert, “The state of energy transition research and the need for fossil phase-out: evidence from Environmental Research Letters,” Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 21, No. 14, July 20, 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8610.     Joshua Lappen and Emily Grubert, “Fossil Energy Minimum Viable Scale,” Science, Vol. 386, No. 6734, January 29, 2026. DOI: 10.1126/science.aea0972.    TT#8: Fixing Climate Communications, Transition Times, June 19, 2026.   NN#6: Backsliding on Climate, Transition Times, July 2, 2026.   TT#10: The Heat is On, Transition Times, July 7, 2026.   TT#12: A Failure to Communicate, Transition Times, July 31, 2026.   TT#5: CCS in the spotlight (again), Transition Times, May 29, 2026.   NN#4: Carbon Capture Follies, Transition Times, May 29, 2026.   Van Vuuren, D. P., O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., Sanderson, B. M., Chini, L. P., Friedlingstein, P., Hasegawa, T., Riahi, K., Govindasamy, B., Bauer, N., Eyring, V., Fall, C. M. N., Frieler, K., Gidden, M. J., Gohar, L. K., Högner, A., Jones, A. D., Kikstra, J., King, A., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lawrence, P., Lennard, C., Lowe, J., Mathison, C., Mehmood, S., Nicholls, Z., Prado, L. F., Zhang, Q., Rose, S. K., Ruane, A. C., Sandstad, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Seferian, R., Sillmann, J., Smith, C., Sörensson, A. A., Panickal, S., Tachiiri, K., Vaughan, N., Vishwanathan, S. S., Yokohata, T., Zecchetto, M., and Ziehn, T.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7), Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2627–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, 2026.   Zeke Hausfather, Glen Peters, and Piers Forster, “On the death of RCP8.5,” The Climate Brink, May 18, 2026.   Robert McSweeney, Cecilia Keating, Zeke Hausfather, “Factcheck: Trump’s false claims about the IPCC and ‘RCP8.5’ climate scenario,” Carbon Brief, May 19, 2026.            

It’s time for energy and climate modelers to start trying to tell the world what’s likely to happen, and show them how to phase out fossil fuels completely. Sources   Emily Grubert’s personal website   Emily Grubert, “The state of energy transition research and the need for fossil phase-out: evidence from Environmental Research Letters,” Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 21, No. 14, July 20, 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8610.     Van Vuuren, D. P., O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., Sanderson, B. M., Chini, L. P., Friedlingstein, P., Hasegawa, T., Riahi, K., Govindasamy, B., Bauer, N., Eyring, V., Fall, C. M. N., Frieler, K., Gidden, M. J., Gohar, L. K., Högner, A., Jones, A. D., Kikstra, J., King, A., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lawrence, P., Lennard, C., Lowe, J., Mathison, C., Mehmood, S., Nicholls, Z., Prado, L. F., Zhang, Q., Rose, S. K., Ruane, A. C., Sandstad, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Seferian, R., Sillmann, J., Smith, C., Sörensson, A. A., Panickal, S., Tachiiri, K., Vaughan, N., Vishwanathan, S. S., Yokohata, T., Zecchetto, M., and Ziehn, T.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7), Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2627–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, 2026.   Zeke Hausfather, Glen Peters, and Piers Forster, “On the death of RCP8.5,” The Climate Brink, May 18, 2026.   Robert McSweeney, Cecilia Keating, Zeke Hausfather, “Factcheck: Trump’s false claims about the IPCC and ‘RCP8.5’ climate scenario,” Carbon Brief, May 19, 2026.    

Much of the world is backsliding on their climate commitments just when we need them to be increasing their ambition, but taking action when it’s difficult is the name of the game. Sources   Jan Rosenow, “Is electrification happening fast enough?” Bright Spots, June 14, 2026.   Valerie Volcovici, “Gas plants for US data centers to be major source of climate change-linked emissions, report says,” Reuters, July 1, 2026.   Olivia Raimonde and Spencer Soper, “Big Tech’s Carbon Emissions Spike With Runaway Growth of AI,” Bloomberg, July 1, 2026.   Episode #135 – Internalizing Climate Risk (with Bob Litterman), Energy Transition Show, November 25, 2020.   David Gelles, “How Wall Street Turned Its Back on Climate Change,” The New York Times, January 17, 2026.   Lisa Friedman and Maxine Joselow, “Trump Allies Near ‘Total Victory’ in Wiping Out U.S. Climate Regulation,” The New York Times, February 9, 2026.   David Lawder, “World Bank to abandon goal to devote 45% of lending resources to climate change projects,” Reuters, June 29, 2026.   Jano Gibson, “US accused of trying to 'edit out' climate change in Antarctic report,” ABC News, June 18, 2026.   Ysabelle Kempe, “New York state gives up on its most ambitious climate targets,” Canary Media,  May 27, 2026.   Ryan Cooper, “Better Affordability Through Climate Policy,” The American Prospect, June 22, 2026.   Hans Nicholas Jong, “Indonesia backs away from coal exit test case amid financial and political pushback,” Mongabay, January 15, 2026.   Janet Wood, “Ministers scrap proposal to require solar photovoltaic canopies on public car parks after industry consultation raises cost concerns,” Freight Carbon Zero, May 28, 206.    Simon Evans, “Factcheck: Why Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is wrong about UK’s net-zero goal,” Carbon Brief, March 18, 2025.    Elena Giordano, “Europe must choose between AI and climate goals, data center lobby says,” PoliticoPro, June 17, 2026.   Mike Scott, “Big Tech splits over proposed shake up of clean energy accounting,” Reuters, May 26, 2026.   John Ainger, “Trump’s White House Takes Aim at EU Emissions Law,” Bloomberg, July 1, 2026.   Episode #269 – Trump’s War on the Energy Transition, Energy Transition Show, Februrary 11, 2026.   Jennifer McDermott, “Trump administration to buy back another energy company’s offshore wind leases for 4 more projects,” Associated Press, June 17, 2026.   Jennifer McDermott, “Federal judge strikes down some Trump administration actions that have slowed clean energy projects,” Associated Press, April 21, 2026.   Leah Stokes, Short Circuiting Policy: Interest Groups and the Battle Over Clean Energy and Climate Policy in the American States, Oxford University Press, 2020.   Episode #121 – Winning and Losing the Policy Game, Energy Transition Show, February 11, 2026.   Susan Lamontagne, “This is the wrong time for major media to shut down environmental coverage,” The New Lede, June 22, 206.    Eric Roston, “What Americans Who Worry About Climate Change Are Getting Wrong,” Bloomberg, June 25, 2026.   Energy Transition Index 2026, World Economic Forum, June 2026.    “Response to Parliament passing the Seventh Carbon Budget into law,” Climate Change Committee, June 24, 2026.   Simon Evans, “Q&A: How UK’s seventh carbon budget will deliver ‘£865bn’ in economic benefits,” Carbon Brief, June 3, 2026.   Electrify Now   Press release: “Governments' Joint Statement on the launch of Electrify Now,” European Union, June 22, 2026.   Press release: “The age of electricity has arrived,” Electrify Now, June 23, 2026.             

The American Century is over and the Asian Century is rising rapidly. But much of the Western policy establishment still hasn’t noticed. Show notes   Episode 238 – Transition in Europe 2024, Energy Transition Show, December 4, 2024.     Daan Walter, Sam Butler-Sloss, Antoine Issac, Kingsmill Bond, and Aditya Lolla, Electric Asia, Ember, June 11, 2026.    Kenneth Pomeranz, The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy, Princeton University Press, 2000.   Jan Rosenow, “Pakistan: the solar revolution nobody planned,” Bright Spots, June 7, 2026.    South Africa 2025, Energy Transition Show.   Allan Olingo, “Renewable energy is overtaking traditional power projects across Africa, industry leaders say,” Associated Press, May 26, 2026.   Nqobile Dludla, “Facing global headwinds, Chinese automakers make a play for Africa,” Reuters, June 26, 2025.   Njenga Hakeenah, “As Chinese Solar Manufacturing Emerges Across Africa, Trade Pressures Threaten Expansion,” China Global South Project, May 18, 2026.   Noah Berman, “China’s Solar Industry Follows the Sun to Africa,” The Wire China, April 5, 2026.   Sebastian Ibold post, LinkedIn, 2025.   “Rwanda’s Ampersand partners BYD to tap Africa’s $5bn motorcycle market,” Daba Finance, June 20, 2024.   Chan Ho-Him, “China car exports jump 73% in May as high fuel prices raise interest in EVs,” Associated Press, June 10, 2026.    Javier Blas, “Ten Reasons Oil Is Still Below $100 a Barrel,” Bloomberg, June 10, 2026 .   Aaron Blake, “How many times has Trump claimed an Iran deal is around the corner?” CNN, June 9, 2026.    “Only 11% of Europeans view US as ally, survey shows,” Reuters, June 10, 2026.   John Eligon and Zimasa Matiwane, “South African President Talks Trump, Racism and That Oval Office ‘Ambush’,” The New York Times, March 5, 2026.   Nqobile Dludla, “China's Chery aims for 2027 start at newly acquired South Africa plant,” Reuters, March 31, 2026.   Andrea Shalal, “Trump's attacks on Europe's leaders worsen transatlantic frost,” Reuters, May 1, 2026.

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is suddenly vogue again. But its business case is as bad as it’s ever been. So why now?  Show notes Nicola Clarke, “383 million tonnes of CO2 permanently stored underground, a new report shows,” IEAGHG, November 17, 2025.   Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage, IEA.   Myles McCormick and Amanda Chu, “Can Exxon build the world’s biggest carbon capture business?,” Financial Times, May 25, 2026.   Nicole Kaeding, “Admitting FutureGen’s Failure,” Cato Institute, February 10, 2015.   International Energy Agency, “Storing CO2 through Enhanced Oil Recovery”, IEA GHG, 2015.   Weyburn-Midale Carbon Dioxide Project, Wikipedia.   “The False Promise and Potential Health Harms of Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2 EOR) as a Tool of Climate Mitigation,” Science and Environmental Health Network and Bold Alliance, August 2024.    Richard H. Worden, Mike Stephenson, and Jon Gluyas, “Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) in Saline Aquifers versus Depleted Gas Fields”, Geosciences, 2024, Vol. 14, Article 146. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences14060146   Philip S. Ringrose and Mark A. Meckel, “Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Saline Aquifers”, Annual Review of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, 2021, Vol. 12, 157–184. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-chembioeng-093020-091447   Yingqi Zhang and colleagues, “The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century”, Nature Communications, 2024, Vol. 15, Article 7608. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51860-4   Press release: “Carbon TerraVault Provides First Quarter 2026 Update,” Carbon TerraVault, LLC, May 5, 2026.   Yufei Li and Eric Wright, “2026 CCUS: Navigating the tides of the great realignment,” S&P Global Commodity Insights, April 14, 2026.   Yamini Kalia in ​Bengaluru and Stephanie Kelly, “BP to sell stakes in flagship UK carbon capture projects in Northern England,” Reuters, May 2, 2026.   Stella Yotova, “What’s Next for Carbon Capture, Utilization & Storage (CCUS) in 2026?,” Carbon Herald, January 13, 2026.    Bidattul Syirat Zainal, I.M.R. Fattah, Hwai Chyuan Ong, Oki Muraza, Normaniza Osman, and T.M. Indra Mahlia, “Recent advancements and assessment of carbon capture technologies for climate crisis mitigation,” Chemical Engineering Journal, Vol. 536, Article 175776, May 15, 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2026.175776   Live Carbon Prices Today, CarbonCredits.com   M.H. Rasool, “Carbon capture and storage: An evidence-based review of its effectiveness, sustainability and strategic role in climate mitigation”, Petroleum Research, 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ptlrs.2025.05.002